The US midterm elections are congressional elections held every two years during the midpoint of the incumbent president’s four-year term. The elections are for seats in Congress, which is composed of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Senators serve for six years and congressional representatives for two years. The Senate has the power to confirm presidential appointments, block or approve bills, and to initiate and conduct investigations into presidential affairs, while the House of Representatives determines which laws are voted on, among other responsibilities. There are two senators assigned to each state, while the number of house representatives is based on the population of each state. Many states also hold elections for their local officials during this time.

Typically, after midterm elections, the party of the president in office will lose a significant number of seats in both the House and the Senate, resulting in the opposing party gaining the majority of seats in either the House, the Senate, or both. On average, four seats are lost in the Senate and twenty-eight in the House. At the beginning of this year’s elections, Democrats had a nine-seat lead in the House (with four seats vacant) and there was a tie in the Senate.

This year though, Democrats defied the norms, gaining one seat in the Senate (out of the 35 that were up for election) and losing only nine seats in the House. This resulted in the Republican party gaining the control of the House, while the Democrats retained control of the Senate. This is the fourth instance since 1922 that the incumbent president’s party has lost fewer than ten seats in the House and gained (or not lost) seats in the Senate. The three previous times that this happened was in 1934, 1968, and 2002.

This was an unexpected result for many, as President Biden’s approval rating was less than 50%, and early polling predicted a large Republican voter turnout. During the last two midterm elections under a Democratic presidency, both presidents (Bill Clinton in 1994 and Barack Obama in 2010) had approval ratings comparable to Biden’s and witnessed their party lose more than 50 seats in the House and at least five seats in the Senate, in addition to losing at least five governorships. Virginia has 11 seats in the House of Representatives, five of which Republican candidates won and 6 of which were won by Democratic candidates.

Candidate favorability was a contributing factor to the results of this year’s midterm election. Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader of the Senate, stated, “Candidate quality has a lot to do with [it].” A great deal of the Republicans that were up for election in the Senate race were those that denied the results of the 2020 election and were endorsed by Trump, leaving them with negative favorability ratings. Many voters said that the Republican candidates this midterm had views that were “too extreme.”

A large turnout of Generation Z voters (born between 1997- 2012) also contributed to the success of Democrats. Numerous Gen Z voters have views that more closely align with those of Democratic policies and are motivated by candidates who plan to address climate change, gun violence, reproductive rights, racial justice, and LGBTQ+ rights. As more Gen Z citizens reach voting age, results seem to sway increasingly to the left. For example, in the 2020 election, Biden received more votes from Gen Z than any other age demographic. This year’s midterm elections had the second-highest voter turnout in the last 30 years— young voters were and continue to be a deciding factor in elections.

The results of the midterm elections of 2022 caught many by surprise and stopped an expected “red wave.” With the help of Gen Z and candidate favorability, Democrats defied the odds and kept control of the Senate.