VOLUME 17, ISSUE 1

OCTOBER 2022

Shifting Circumstances and New Threats in the War in Ukraine

By Nina Broderick, Isabella Kenney, and Nishka Patel

For eight months, global news feeds have been flooded with various stories and vivid imagery of the brutal devastation spreading throughout Ukraine. Recently, President Vladimir Putin’s Russia has been losing ground while Ukraine uses all its resources to fight back and protect its beloved homeland. According to a broadcast produced by NPR, over the weekend of September 10-11, Ukraine worked to reclaim around 30 settlements across the Kharkiv region in the northeast. This was catastrophic for the Russian forces as their numbers rapidly collapsed, creating a glimmer of hope for Ukraine against an otherwise morbid backdrop.

Following Ukraine’s recent advances, NPR further asserts that a significant political shift arose in favor of Ukraine. Instead of a bloody stalemate, a clearer path to victory has appeared for the Ukrainian people. This emerging faith in Ukraine’s success provides grounds for support from more countries. In spite of this optimistic turn of events, the people of Ukraine are still heavily affected by the disastrous warfare in their neighborhoods. The conflict in Kharkiv has forced people in the area to suffer through blackouts and has deprived them of the basic necessity of water for excruciating periods. While their day-to-day hardships persist, Ukrainian troops continue to critically enforce and execute their defensive measures in the face of Russian opposition.

After heavy losses in Kharkiv, many Russian troops moved southward to the Kherson region. Although some believe this is simply a strategic retreat, reporters from NPR predict that the amount of weaponry left behind by the Russians in the north indicates a rout. This sudden shift in favor of the Ukrainian forces has confounded the Russian media and fueled an upsurge in anti-war protests. According to The Washington Post, the first six months of the war saw over 16,000 protesters arrested. On September 24 alone, Russian police detained more than 700 anti-war protesters across 32 Russian cities. President Putin has not let the cries of discontent impede his plans, though, as he ordered a partial militarization on September 21 to call up approximately 300,000 military reservists to active duty. This act to strengthen his forces in Ukraine was the first military mobilization Russia has implemented since World War II. However, as noted by an article in Bloomberg, over 80,000 Russian troops have already been injured or killed, so Putin’s desperate attempts to bolster his offensive may not stand the test of time. Even as Russian citizens eligible for the partial reservist call-up flee the country, their war-mongering leader continues to march forth in his insatiable quest to claim Ukraine.

Putin’s continued veiled nuclear threats invoke global concern and response against the potential destructive introduction of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. The Washington Post deduces that from the start of the Ukrainian invasion, the Kremlin’s statements have usually contained warnings for the United States and its allies to not support Ukraine’s effort, but recent statements have shifted to utilize more assertive language about Kremlin’s willingness to bring in nuclear weapons. President Putin vows that Russia will not hesitate to use “all weapons systems available.” Daryl Kimball, the executive director of the Arms Control Association, claims that statement shows the Kremlin’s consideration in using such weapons to freeze Ukrainian gains and force Kyiv lower as Russia exhibits increasing weakness on the battlefield.

A debut of nuclear weapons in this war would undoubtedly influence the Black Sea region and cascade into a series of global responses, something many world leaders are fearful of. During a recent interview with CBS News, President Biden responded to Putin’s intimation of escalating to nuclear weapons stating, “Don’t. Don’t. Don’t. You will change the face of war unlike anything since World War II.” Yet The Washington Post asserts that if Russia executes its threats of nuclear war, a nuclear response from other nuclear powers such as the United States “would be viewed as reckless by many in Washington.” With this dark warning against the detrimental consequences of global nuclear warfare looming overhead while the blood of troops and citizens continues to spill, the future of Ukraine and the world hangs in a precarious balance.

Information retrieved from Elissa Nadworny and Ashley Westerman of NPR News, Kelly Kasulis Cho of The Washington Post, Matt Murphy of BBC News, James Stavridis of Bloomberg, and Paul Sonne and John Hudson of The Washington Post.