For the first time in decades, Richmond’s population is growing faster than Northern Virginia’s—a shift that could reshape the state’s economic and cultural landscape. According to the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, between 2020 and 2022, the Richmond metro area added 27,640 people, growing by 2.1%. That’s at least three times the growth rate of Virginia’s other major metro areas. Northern Virginia barely grew at 0.7%, while Lynchburg and Virginia Beach saw even smaller increases. The Roanoke area actually lost people. The last times Richmond outpaced Northern Virginia were in 1971 and 2006, but this time is markedly different.

It’s important to note that most of the growth isn’t happening in the city itself but in the surrounding counties. Chesterfield County has added over 17,000 new residents since 2020, more than any other locality in Virginia. New Kent and Goochland counties are growing even faster by percentage, jumping 8.1% and 5.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, inner Richmond City’s growth has been modest—just 0.2%, ranking 11th out of the 17 localities in the metro area. This signifies that people are choosing Richmond, but they’re settling in the suburbs.

This isn’t just a Richmond trend. Fairfax County has lost nearly 1% of its population as Northern Virginians head south to places like Stafford and Spotsylvania. In Hampton Roads, cities like Norfolk and Virginia Beach are losing people, while Suffolk and Isle of Wight County are gaining.

So what’s driving this shift? More people are leaving Northern Virginia, and Richmond is catching some of them before they leave the state entirely. Between 2015 and 2019, Richmond gained about 3,000 new residents from Washington, D.C., New York, and Philadelphia, even after accounting for those who moved in the other direction. It’s a sign that Richmond is becoming more than just an affordable alternative—it’s a destination. But growth comes with challenges. If the trend continues, Virginia could find itself in a pre-Great Recession situation where suburban counties struggle to keep up with demand for housing, schools, and infrastructure while larger cities risk losing tax revenue.

The big question is whether Richmond can handle this moment. Can it build enough housing? Improve transportation? Maintain the affordability that’s drawing people here in the first place? For now, one thing is clear: Richmond is no longer just an alternative to Northern Virginia. It’s a place people are choosing—on purpose. The next challenge is making sure it stays that way.

Information retrieved from ABC News, Richmond Magazine, Neilsberg, Richmond Times-Dispatch.