In Maggie Walker’s Math Modeling class, taught by Mr. Dickson Benesh, students are given the unique opportunity to participate in the Modeling the Future Challenge, an annual competition sponsored by the Actuarial Foundation. According to Benesh, “The Modeling the Future Challenge’s format dovetails perfectly with the class.” One team from MLWGS qualified for the Modeling the Future finals this year: the Mathcrafters, consisting of seniors Albert Tang, Bryce Pardo, Jack Simmons, Sam Lichtman, and Eric Qian. 

Benesh shared that for the challenge, the teams were able to pick any topic they wanted.

For the Modeling the Future Challenge, he explained, “The Mathcrafters project analyzed the effects of a proposed extension to the Powhite Parkway on traffic and accident rates.” Jack Simmons, a member of the group, added some personal connection to the problem, explaining how they were inspired by the “awful, traffic-heavy commute that faces all West Chesterfield commuters, including myself.” When the team was looking for solutions to this traffic issue, they found out that there is “an extension of Powhite Parkway planned to alleviate the traffic on the smaller roads leading up to the Parkway and routing it straight to the Parkway.” This solution might seem perfect on the surface level, but there are some deeper challenges involved. Simmons explained, “With this extension comes approval for several large subdivisions, which would crowd the existing part of Powhite Parkway further, and the county had not studied the extent of this problem.” 

For their solution, Bryce Pardo shared that the team used the “Lighthill Witham Richards model to determine traffic delays and flow rate based on projections of traffic density.” Sam Lichtman, another group member, added that the group utilized this model to “analyze the traffic conditions on Powhite Parkway and make predictions about the way travel time, reaction time, and accident rates will change as a result of the extension.” Lichtman also added that they analyzed the result of a one-lane closure using “kinematic wave theory as a tool to explore the impact of an accident on traffic conditions.” Simmons shared that after these calculations, “We found that while our commute would get slightly slower, the amount of cars able to reach the city by Powhite would increase.” He concluded that the Powhite extension is, in fact, beneficial because it routes many West Chesterfield drivers away from the small roads that lead to the existing Powhite Parkway, which thereby increases the flow of cars to the city. “While individual commutes might be slightly slower, the county as a whole would benefit.”

The team recently heard back from the judges on their final paper and presentation from the judges. Although the team did not win, Simmons expressed how the judges’ comments were “thoroughly positive.” Simmons went on to explain the comments, noting how the judges were “particularly impressed” with the production quality of the video, giving thanks to group member Albert Tang. He also added that the uniqueness of their solution was very appealing to the judges, because the team created a deterministic model for “a contest that generally focuses on probabilistic model.” While the Mathcrafters did not win the finals, the fact that they were able to make it that far in the competition is a worthy accomplishment. The challenge only has thirteen finalists, and Maggie Walker’s team, the Mathcrafters, worked extremely hard to be one of them. 

If you have any questions on the program or want to hear more about the team’s amazing solution to a local problem that might affect you, feel free to reach out to Mathcrafters team member Jack Simmons, at 22jsimmons@gsgis.k12.va.us.