VOLUME 19, ISSUE 1

September 2024

2024: The Year of the Elections

By: Tanvi Palavalas

2024 is shaping up to be an extraordinary year, marked not only by the Paris Summer Olympics, a total solar eclipse, and a slew of new entertainment releases (though notably, not GTA 6), but also by a series of historic elections around the world.

Here at home, the U.S. presidential race has taken unexpected turns. This summer witnessed an assassination attempt on former President Trump as well as President Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race after testing positive for COVID-19. With Vice President Kamala Harris stepping in alongside running mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, the campaign landscape has been transformed, showcasing an unprecedented expansion in social media strategies, such as embracing TikTok trends. On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump and running mate Senator JD Vance face controversies such as Project 2025, adding further complexities to their campaign. This race, culminating in the national presidential election on November 5th, 2024,  holds the potential to reshape the nation significantly, especially with Trump vying for a second term.

In Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum of the Morena Party has made history as the country’s first female president, a victory to be officially declared on October 1st. Sheinbaum secured nearly 60% of the vote and her party dominated with wins in seven out of nine governorships and over 250 congressional seats. However, this progress is marred by the tragic assassination of Yolanda Sanchez, the first mayor of Cotija, highlighting ongoing issues with violence in the country. This is significant as it marks both a historic achievement for gender equality in Mexican politics and highlights the continued challenges of violence and insecurity that threaten the country's democratic development.

Beyond North America, the significance of elections in 2024 cannot be overstated. In Taiwan, the upcoming presidential election will crucially influence Beijing’s approach to the island, which faces persistent threats of invasion. Similarly, in Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina appears poised for another term amid a contentious political climate, with the main opposition boycotting the election in response to government crackdowns on protests, dissent, and media censorship. Pakistan’s election, held on February 8th after months of delay and political turmoil, yielded surprising results: Despite expectations that former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif would win with military backing, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party managed to secure a plurality of seats through independent candidates. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan remains jailed, casting a shadow over the electoral process and hinting at growing voter dissatisfaction with military interference.

India’s election delivered a setback for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which lost its outright majority in parliament. Failing to secure the 272 seats needed for control, the BJP must now rely on coalition allies. This shift reflects a growing opposition alliance, led by the Indian National Congress, appealing to voters who feel left behind by India’s rapid economic growth, marking a significant change in the country’s political dynamics.

In Russia, President Vladimir Putin achieved an unprecedented 87.3 percent of the vote in the March election with a 77.4 percent turnout. This result, managed through a system of meticulously orchestrated "key performance indicators" (KPIs), highlights a formalization of electoral tactics previously concealed. The multi-day voting period and new online voting options, coupled with stricter candidate eligibility and campaign regulations, signal increased control and regulation in Russian elections.

The UK’s 2024 election saw Labour Party leader Keir Starmer securing the largest majority in the party’s history. As Prime Minister, Starmer has promised to steer the UK toward “calmer waters,” appointing Rachel Reeves as the first female Chancellor of the Exchequer. The Conservative Party, led by the outgoing Rishi Sunak, faced a crushing defeat, with significant losses including prominent members. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats and Green Party made notable gains, though the Scottish National Party’s push for independence was weakened. Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, made a breakthrough by winning four seats. Despite these notable changes, voter turnout fell to its lowest in over two decades.

In Iran, reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian’s victory in the runoff presidential election marks a potential shift towards greater engagement with the West and possible easing of strict laws. Pezeshkian defeated hard-liner Saeed Jalili with 16.3 million votes to 13.5 million. Despite a slight increase in turnout, his administration will need to navigate a government still largely controlled by hard-liners and complex international relations.

2024 is not just another election year; it is a defining moment in global politics. With elections in at least 64 countries and the European Union, representing nearly half of the world's population, the outcomes will reverberate for years to come. The results in Taiwan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Russia, Ukraine, the UK, and beyond will set the stage for future global dynamics, underscoring the profound significance of this election year.


Information from Time, Bloomberg, Brookings, AP News, CNN, and ElectionGuide.Org.